Tag: commodities

Business

Kotak Securities’ 2026 Market Outlook Signals Strong Equities and Shining Gold Amid Global Volatility

Tanisha Cardozo

Written by Tanisha Cardozo || Team Allycaral Business Desk

Kotak Securities Ltd (“Kotak Neo”) has released its Market Outlook 2026, presenting a confident view of India’s financial landscape for the coming year. Despite global volatility, the firm expects Indian equities and key commodities to maintain strong momentum driven by favourable macro conditions, robust earnings expectations and rising investor participation. Shripal Shah, MD & CEO of Kotak Securities, said that India continues to stand out as a beacon of growth amid global turbulence. According to him, equity markets are well-positioned to deliver strong performance in 2026, supported by healthy corporate earnings and policy initiatives. Shah also highlighted the increasing role of young investors in shaping the future of India’s capital markets, adding that the industry must work towards making investing more inclusive and accessible.

Citing recent SEBI findings, Shah noted a significant gap between market awareness and actual participation: while 63% of households are aware of at least one market product, only 9.5% actively invest. This, he said, indicates substantial untapped potential for the Indian equity ecosystem and a major opportunity for brokerage firms to drive greater financial inclusion. The report points out that Indian equities overcame a sharp 17% drawdown from the September 2024 highs, with the Nifty 50 rebounding to a new all-time high by the end of 2025. Large-cap stocks led the recovery, while mid- and small-cap segments trailed. Sectors such as automobiles, banks and metals outperformed during the year, whereas IT and FMCG remained under pressure. Persistent foreign portfolio investor outflows were absorbed by strong domestic investor activity, further reinforcing confidence in India’s market resilience. A buoyant primary market through 2025 demonstrated sustained investor interest and optimism.

Looking ahead, Kotak Securities expects Nifty earnings to remain healthy, projecting profit growth of 17.6% for FY27 and 14.8% for FY28. Based on these expectations, the report lays out three potential scenarios for December 2026: a base case target of 29,120 assuming a 20x PE on FY28 expected EPS of ₹1,456, a bull case of 32,032 at a 22x PE, and a bear case scenario of 26,208 at an 18x multiple. On the commodities front, 2025 saw exceptional movements. Gold surged over 55%, crossing the $4,000 per ounce mark, driven by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty and strong central bank buying. Indian gold prices rose even more sharply—approximately 60%—due to rupee depreciation. Silver proved an even stronger performer with gains of nearly 100%, supported by safe-haven demand and persistent structural supply deficits despite industrial headwinds from tariffs. Crude oil, however, ended 2025 with a 19% decline as excess supply outweighed geopolitical concerns. Base metals like copper and aluminium remained firm, supported by tight supply conditions, electrification demand and structural constraints even as volatility persisted.

Overall, Kotak Securities’ Market Outlook 2026 emphasizes a year of opportunity for investors willing to navigate global uncertainty with a focus on India’s strong fundamentals, expanding investor base and commodity trends that continue to offer both stability and growth potential.

Business

Gold Prices in India Projected to Surge to ₹1,25,000 by 2026: Report

allycaralgoa

New Delhi | September 2025

Gold, the world’s most trusted safe-haven asset, may be heading toward a historic high. A recent market analysis predicts that gold prices in India could rise to ₹1,25,000 per 10 grams by 2026, driven by a mix of global and domestic factors.

📌 Key Drivers of the Surge

  1. Global Economic Uncertainty – Rising geopolitical tensions, slowing growth in major economies, and unstable financial markets are pushing investors toward safer assets like gold.
  2. Inflationary Pressures – Persistently high inflation rates across the world are making gold a preferred hedge against currency depreciation.
  3. Strong Domestic Demand – In India, festivals, weddings, and traditional investments continue to drive robust demand for gold, further pushing prices upward.
  4. US Dollar Weakness – Any decline in the strength of the dollar is historically correlated with higher gold prices.

The forecast suggests that gold will remain a reliable wealth-preserving instrument, especially amid market volatility. Analysts advise investors to consider gold as part of a diversified portfolio, though caution that sharp short-term fluctuations cannot be ruled out.

According to bullion experts, the long-term fundamentals remain strong. “Gold has always proven to be a safe-haven asset in uncertain times. The projected surge is in line with historical trends,” said one analyst.

If the projections hold true, Indian households—already among the world’s largest consumers of gold—could see their favorite metal reaching record highs by 2026. For investors and families alike, gold’s glitter may shine brighter than ever in the years to come.

👉 Stay tuned with allycaral.com for more updates on financial markets, investments, and economic trends.

Business

Vedanta Shines Bright: Brokerages Predict Strong Earnings on Aluminium Boom, LME Upside

Tanisha Cardozo

Major global and Indian brokerages remain upbeat on Vedanta Ltd.’s earnings outlook into FY26 and FY27, with analysts highlighting rising LME prices, aluminium vertical integration, INR depreciation, and new project launches as key tailwinds for the diversified natural resources company.

J.P. Morgan reported that Vedanta’s Q1 consolidated EBITDA was broadly in line with estimates, but several segments—including Aluminium, Oil & Gas, and Power—outperformed expectations, leading to a segmental EBITDA beat. “LME prices have bottomed and are expected to trend higher into FY26–27,” the firm said, noting that vertical integration in aluminium production will enhance cost competitiveness.

Citi Research echoed similar optimism, pointing to Vedanta’s parent company’s (Vedanta Resources) stable leverage, limited global aluminium supply growth, and the upcoming demerger as positive catalysts. The firm sees medium-term upside driven by favourable pricing and volume increases.

Mumbai-based Nuvama Institutional Equities expects Vedanta to post 10%+ QoQ EBITDA growth in Q2FY26, driven by improved pricing and lower aluminium production costs. “We see net debt/EBITDA (excluding Hindustan Zinc) falling to 1.7x by FY26-end from 2.7x in FY25,” Nuvama said, reaffirming its ‘BUY’ rating with a target price of ₹601. All major projects, except coal blocks, are expected to be commissioned in the current fiscal year.

UK-based Investec noted the company’s advantageous position amid a weakening Indian Rupee. Lower alumina prices and attractive yields were also highlighted as near-term positives.

Additional support came from Kotak Institutional Equities and IIFL, which emphasized cost-efficiency measures and deleveraging at both Vedanta Ltd. and Vedanta Resources.

🔹 Financial Highlights:

  • Adjusted PAT rose 13% YoY to ₹5,000 crore
  • Q1FY26 EBITDA reached ₹10,746 crore, the highest-ever first-quarter EBITDA, marking a 5% YoY growth

🔹 Strategic Developments Ahead:

  • Commissioning of aluminium expansion projects in Q2FY26
  • Expected demerger completion by Q4FY26
  • Cost reduction and vertical integration across business verticals

📊 Analyst Sentiment: Strong Buy

With positive cues from international commodity markets and a strategic focus on expansion and cost optimization, Vedanta appears well-positioned to capitalize on macro and sectoral tailwinds.

Business

Silver Surges Past ₹1.09 Lakh per Kg on MCX – A Historic High

allycaralgoa

Mumbai, June 19, 2025 – In a historic development for the precious metals market, silver prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) crossed the ₹1.09 lakh per kilogram mark for the first time ever, driven by strong global cues, safe-haven demand, and investor optimism in commodities.

The benchmark July futures contract of silver surged to ₹1,09,250/kg during early trade on Wednesday, setting a new all-time high on MCX. This unprecedented rally reflects a confluence of international market momentum, a weakening dollar, and persistent inflation concerns globally.

Why Is Silver Rallying?

Analysts attribute the sharp rise in silver prices to several key factors:

  • Global Market Tailwinds: International silver prices have been steadily rising amid geopolitical tensions, higher industrial demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts by central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve.
  • Safe-Haven Demand: With global economic uncertainty and volatile equity markets, investors are increasingly turning to silver and gold as hedges, contributing to upward pressure on prices.
  • Industrial Demand: Silver is a critical component in electronics, solar panels, and EV batteries. The clean energy transition continues to boost demand for the metal across manufacturing hubs.
  • Speculative Buying: In recent sessions, silver has witnessed renewed interest from retail and institutional investors alike, fueling speculative buying on MCX.

Gold Also on the Rise

The surge in silver comes alongside gains in gold, which is trading near record highs as well. MCX gold futures hovered above ₹72,000 per 10 grams, mirroring the broader bullish sentiment in the bullion market.

What It Means for Investors and Consumers

For investors, this rally reaffirms the long-standing position of silver as a valuable portfolio diversifier and inflation hedge. However, for industries reliant on silver, such as electronics and jewelry, rising input costs could lead to downstream price hikes.

Market experts advise caution, noting that while the trend is bullish, volatility could rise in the short term. Profit-booking and macroeconomic shifts could still affect prices in the coming weeks.

Quote:
“The ₹1.09 lakh mark is a psychological and technical milestone. Silver’s fundamentals remain strong, but short-term corrections can’t be ruled out,” said Anuj Mehta, a commodities strategist.

Outlook: Will the Rally Sustain?

As the global economy navigates a mix of inflationary pressures, rate decisions, and geopolitical dynamics, precious metals are likely to remain in focus. If current trends continue, silver may test higher levels in the coming months, with resistance seen around ₹1.12–1.15 lakh/kg, according to market analysts.

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