Major global and Indian brokerages remain upbeat on Vedanta Ltd.’s earnings outlook into FY26 and FY27, with analysts highlighting rising LME prices, aluminium vertical integration, INR depreciation, and new project launches as key tailwinds for the diversified natural resources company.
J.P. Morgan reported that Vedanta’s Q1 consolidated EBITDA was broadly in line with estimates, but several segments—including Aluminium, Oil & Gas, and Power—outperformed expectations, leading to a segmental EBITDA beat. “LME prices have bottomed and are expected to trend higher into FY26–27,” the firm said, noting that vertical integration in aluminium production will enhance cost competitiveness.
Citi Research echoed similar optimism, pointing to Vedanta’s parent company’s (Vedanta Resources) stable leverage, limited global aluminium supply growth, and the upcoming demerger as positive catalysts. The firm sees medium-term upside driven by favourable pricing and volume increases.
Mumbai-based Nuvama Institutional Equities expects Vedanta to post 10%+ QoQ EBITDA growth in Q2FY26, driven by improved pricing and lower aluminium production costs. “We see net debt/EBITDA (excluding Hindustan Zinc) falling to 1.7x by FY26-end from 2.7x in FY25,” Nuvama said, reaffirming its ‘BUY’ rating with a target price of ₹601. All major projects, except coal blocks, are expected to be commissioned in the current fiscal year.
UK-based Investec noted the company’s advantageous position amid a weakening Indian Rupee. Lower alumina prices and attractive yields were also highlighted as near-term positives.
Additional support came from Kotak Institutional Equities and IIFL, which emphasized cost-efficiency measures and deleveraging at both Vedanta Ltd. and Vedanta Resources.
🔹 Financial Highlights:
- Adjusted PAT rose 13% YoY to ₹5,000 crore
- Q1FY26 EBITDA reached ₹10,746 crore, the highest-ever first-quarter EBITDA, marking a 5% YoY growth
🔹 Strategic Developments Ahead:
- Commissioning of aluminium expansion projects in Q2FY26
- Expected demerger completion by Q4FY26
- Cost reduction and vertical integration across business verticals
📊 Analyst Sentiment: Strong Buy
With positive cues from international commodity markets and a strategic focus on expansion and cost optimization, Vedanta appears well-positioned to capitalize on macro and sectoral tailwinds.
