Written by Tanisha Cardozo || Team Allycaral Business Desk
Kotak Securities Ltd (“Kotak Neo”) has released its Market Outlook 2026, presenting a confident view of India’s financial landscape for the coming year. Despite global volatility, the firm expects Indian equities and key commodities to maintain strong momentum driven by favourable macro conditions, robust earnings expectations and rising investor participation. Shripal Shah, MD & CEO of Kotak Securities, said that India continues to stand out as a beacon of growth amid global turbulence. According to him, equity markets are well-positioned to deliver strong performance in 2026, supported by healthy corporate earnings and policy initiatives. Shah also highlighted the increasing role of young investors in shaping the future of India’s capital markets, adding that the industry must work towards making investing more inclusive and accessible.
Citing recent SEBI findings, Shah noted a significant gap between market awareness and actual participation: while 63% of households are aware of at least one market product, only 9.5% actively invest. This, he said, indicates substantial untapped potential for the Indian equity ecosystem and a major opportunity for brokerage firms to drive greater financial inclusion. The report points out that Indian equities overcame a sharp 17% drawdown from the September 2024 highs, with the Nifty 50 rebounding to a new all-time high by the end of 2025. Large-cap stocks led the recovery, while mid- and small-cap segments trailed. Sectors such as automobiles, banks and metals outperformed during the year, whereas IT and FMCG remained under pressure. Persistent foreign portfolio investor outflows were absorbed by strong domestic investor activity, further reinforcing confidence in India’s market resilience. A buoyant primary market through 2025 demonstrated sustained investor interest and optimism.
Looking ahead, Kotak Securities expects Nifty earnings to remain healthy, projecting profit growth of 17.6% for FY27 and 14.8% for FY28. Based on these expectations, the report lays out three potential scenarios for December 2026: a base case target of 29,120 assuming a 20x PE on FY28 expected EPS of ₹1,456, a bull case of 32,032 at a 22x PE, and a bear case scenario of 26,208 at an 18x multiple. On the commodities front, 2025 saw exceptional movements. Gold surged over 55%, crossing the $4,000 per ounce mark, driven by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty and strong central bank buying. Indian gold prices rose even more sharply—approximately 60%—due to rupee depreciation. Silver proved an even stronger performer with gains of nearly 100%, supported by safe-haven demand and persistent structural supply deficits despite industrial headwinds from tariffs. Crude oil, however, ended 2025 with a 19% decline as excess supply outweighed geopolitical concerns. Base metals like copper and aluminium remained firm, supported by tight supply conditions, electrification demand and structural constraints even as volatility persisted.
Overall, Kotak Securities’ Market Outlook 2026 emphasizes a year of opportunity for investors willing to navigate global uncertainty with a focus on India’s strong fundamentals, expanding investor base and commodity trends that continue to offer both stability and growth potential.
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